A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
